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Bitcoin cycles and the 2028 halving: what history does and does not tell a miner

Segments research team · Updated November 2, 2026 · 5 min read

In each of the last three full cycles, Bitcoin rose to a high, fell by more than three quarters, then rose to a new high. Each rise was smaller than the one before. The fourth cycle is still in its fall. Three full cycles are too few to set a date, and none is promised.

Outside a UAE hosting site

Four cycles side by side

About every four years a halving cuts the new bitcoin paid per block in half. The next one is at block 1,050,000, estimated around April 2028, when the reward goes from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. What that does to a machine’s income is in the 2028 halving article. Here we look only at what the price did around past halvings.

CycleDays from halving to cycle highFall from the highLow → next high
2012 halvingabout 371−87.0% (2013–15)$162 (2015) → $19,785: about 122×
2016 halvingabout 525−84.3% (2017–18)$3,125 (2018) → $68,977: about 22×
2020 halvingabout 547−77.6% (2021–22)$15,479 (2022) → about $126,000: about 8×
2024 halvingabout 540 (high on 6 October 2025)about −52% so far (2026)not known
Days and falls: Digital Surge, June 2026. Lows and highs: LookIntoBitcoin. All figures rounded.

The 2025 high was about $126,000 on 6 October 2025. In 2026 the price fell to about $59,000 at the end of June (Luxor) and closed October 2026 at $77,582 (Binance). In the three earlier cycles, the fall from peak to bottom took about 382 days on average.

Bitcoin price

$80,809

$110,602$58,534Nov 2: $110,047Nov 3: $110,602Nov 4: $106,533Nov 5: $101,523Nov 6: $103,884Nov 7: $101,283Nov 8: $103,329Nov 9: $102,280Nov 10: $104,712Nov 11: $105,962Nov 12: $103,018Nov 16: $95,534Nov 17: $94,188Nov 18: $92,093Nov 19: $92,979Nov 20: $91,453Nov 21: $86,467Nov 22: $85,097Nov 23: $84,678Nov 24: $86,787Nov 25: $88,276Nov 26: $87,331Nov 27: $90,518Nov 28: $91,305Nov 29: $90,915Nov 30: $90,831Dec 1: $90,376Dec 2: $86,316Dec 3: $91,320Dec 4: $93,468Dec 5: $92,142Dec 6: $89,343Dec 7: $89,231Dec 8: $90,455Dec 9: $90,644Dec 10: $92,704Dec 11: $91,985Dec 12: $92,498Dec 13: $90,270Dec 14: $90,281Dec 15: $88,166Dec 16: $86,423Dec 17: $87,835Dec 18: $86,133Dec 19: $85,458Dec 20: $88,099Dec 21: $88,337Dec 22: $88,616Dec 23: $88,485Dec 24: $87,425Dec 25: $87,608Dec 26: $87,224Dec 27: $87,300Dec 28: $87,790Dec 29: $87,835Dec 30: $87,123Dec 31: $88,424Jan 1: $87,494Jan 2: $88,735Jan 3: $89,944Jan 4: $90,591Jan 5: $91,468Jan 6: $93,882Jan 7: $93,739Jan 8: $91,273Jan 9: $91,030Jan 10: $90,496Jan 11: $90,379Jan 12: $90,818Jan 13: $91,194Jan 14: $95,334Jan 15: $96,932Jan 16: $95,560Jan 17: $95,528Jan 18: $95,098Jan 19: $93,665Jan 20: $92,553Jan 21: $88,325Jan 22: $89,375Jan 23: $89,462Jan 24: $89,506Jan 25: $89,082Jan 26: $86,571Jan 27: $88,246Jan 28: $89,117Jan 29: $89,160Jan 30: $84,563Jan 31: $84,120Feb 1: $78,586Feb 2: $76,880Feb 3: $78,680Feb 4: $75,632Feb 5: $73,004Feb 6: $62,812Feb 7: $70,520Feb 8: $69,283Feb 9: $70,285Feb 10: $70,131Feb 11: $68,794Feb 12: $66,980Feb 13: $66,206Feb 14: $68,852Feb 15: $69,755Feb 16: $68,785Feb 17: $68,840Feb 18: $67,460Feb 19: $66,428Feb 20: $66,957Feb 21: $67,995Feb 22: $67,966Feb 23: $67,615Feb 24: $64,620Feb 25: $64,043Feb 26: $67,985Feb 27: $67,471Feb 28: $65,867Mar 1: $67,006Mar 2: $65,762Mar 3: $68,776Mar 4: $68,265Mar 5: $72,758Mar 6: $70,887Mar 7: $68,129Mar 8: $67,280Mar 9: $65,941Mar 10: $68,453Mar 11: $69,922Mar 12: $70,197Mar 13: $70,494Mar 14: $70,966Mar 15: $71,219Mar 16: $72,820Mar 17: $74,860Mar 18: $73,928Mar 19: $71,263Mar 20: $69,911Mar 21: $70,508Mar 22: $68,890Mar 23: $67,850Mar 24: $70,885Mar 25: $70,518Mar 26: $71,301Mar 27: $68,779Mar 28: $66,330Mar 29: $66,320Mar 30: $65,957Mar 31: $66,694Apr 1: $68,217Apr 2: $68,100Apr 3: $66,891Apr 4: $66,932Apr 5: $67,286Apr 6: $68,997Apr 7: $68,857Apr 8: $71,950Apr 9: $71,130Apr 10: $71,771Apr 11: $72,976Apr 12: $73,065Apr 13: $70,768Apr 14: $74,501Apr 15: $74,195Apr 16: $74,815Apr 17: $75,170Apr 18: $77,143Apr 19: $75,735Apr 20: $73,857Apr 21: $75,874Apr 22: $76,353Apr 23: $78,206Apr 24: $78,267Apr 25: $77,459Apr 26: $77,636Apr 27: $78,649Apr 28: $77,373Apr 29: $76,347Apr 30: $75,782May 1: $76,286May 2: $78,196May 3: $78,670May 4: $78,543May 5: $79,828May 6: $80,928May 7: $81,437May 8: $80,016May 9: $80,198May 10: $80,672May 11: $82,146May 12: $81,738May 13: $80,491May 14: $79,286May 15: $81,068May 16: $79,063May 17: $78,141May 18: $77,409May 19: $76,947May 20: $76,753May 21: $77,463May 22: $77,538May 23: $75,461May 24: $76,674May 25: $76,985May 26: $77,285May 27: $75,823May 28: $74,348May 29: $73,539May 30: $73,372May 31: $73,755Jun 1: $73,571Jun 2: $71,326Jun 3: $66,677Jun 4: $64,013Jun 5: $63,813Jun 6: $61,039Jun 7: $60,861Jun 8: $63,275Jun 9: $63,090Jun 10: $61,642Jun 11: $61,450Jun 12: $63,548Jun 13: $63,540Jun 14: $64,427Jun 15: $65,713Jun 16: $66,285Jun 17: $65,612Jun 18: $64,429Jun 19: $62,901Jun 20: $63,486Jun 21: $64,250Jun 22: $63,235Jun 23: $63,952Jun 24: $62,654Jun 25: $60,984Jun 26: $59,710Jun 27: $60,024Jun 28: $59,941Jun 29: $59,497Jun 30: $60,136Jul 1: $58,534Jul 2: $59,964Jul 3: $61,484Jul 4: $62,545Jul 5: $63,086Jul 6: $63,572Jul 7: $64,000Jul 8: $63,287Jul 9: $62,250Jul 10: $63,188Jul 11: $64,125Jul 12: $63,783Jul 13: $63,744Jul 14: $62,242Jul 15: $64,960Jul 16: $64,715Jul 17: $63,791Jul 18: $63,899Jul 19: $64,798Jul 20: $64,682Jul 21: $65,210Jul 22: $66,512Jul 23: $66,074Jul 24: $65,051Jul 25: $64,095Jul 26: $64,312Jul 27: $65,335Jul 28: $63,711Jul 29: $63,873Jul 30: $63,897Jul 31: $64,721Aug 1: $62,811Aug 2: $62,760Aug 3: $63,487Aug 4: $63,461Aug 5: $64,054Aug 6: $64,600Aug 7: $64,255Aug 8: $64,879Aug 9: $64,906Aug 10: $64,855Aug 11: $63,917Aug 12: $63,552Aug 13: $63,401Aug 14: $63,406Aug 15: $62,972Aug 16: $63,024Aug 17: $62,826Aug 18: $64,504Aug 19: $64,684Aug 20: $69,284Aug 21: $73,025Aug 22: $78,324Aug 23: $77,077Aug 24: $77,701Aug 25: $78,976Aug 26: $78,522Aug 27: $79,030Aug 28: $80,273Aug 29: $77,835Aug 30: $78,232Aug 31: $77,690Sep 1: $78,550Sep 2: $77,411Sep 3: $77,304Sep 4: $81,273Sep 5: $79,677Sep 6: $79,833Sep 7: $80,341Sep 8: $79,094Sep 9: $78,444Sep 10: $78,273Sep 11: $76,540Sep 12: $77,210Sep 13: $77,273Sep 14: $76,830Sep 15: $78,170Sep 16: $75,609Sep 17: $76,142Sep 18: $76,395Sep 19: $80,872Sep 20: $81,257Sep 21: $81,136Sep 22: $86,608Sep 23: $86,185Sep 24: $84,385Sep 25: $84,380Sep 26: $84,087Sep 27: $84,423Sep 28: $84,444Sep 29: $83,471Sep 30: $83,629Oct 1: $83,571Oct 2: $84,862Oct 3: $84,503Oct 4: $84,744Oct 5: $86,488Oct 6: $85,771Oct 7: $85,549Oct 8: $83,285Oct 9: $81,673Oct 10: $82,562Oct 11: $82,917Oct 12: $83,677Oct 13: $81,752Oct 14: $83,094Oct 15: $81,567Oct 16: $82,145Oct 17: $81,506Oct 18: $81,383Oct 19: $82,027Oct 20: $81,843Oct 21: $82,943Oct 22: $84,019Oct 23: $81,316Oct 24: $81,070Oct 25: $80,772Oct 26: $80,023Oct 27: $80,000Oct 28: $80,809Nov 2Oct 28
Bitcoin price over the past 12 months. A record of past values, not a forecast.Blockchain.com, daily, to Oct 28

Each rise has been smaller

The clearest pattern across the three full cycles is not the timing. It is the shrinking size. From the bottom to the next high the price rose about 122 times, then about 22 times, then about 8 times. The falls also got shallower: −87%, −84%, −78%, and about −52% so far this time.

One common reading is that a larger market needs more money to move. Whatever the reason, the old multiples are not a guide to the next one.

Few data points, and no date

Three full cycles is a very small sample. The days from halving to high (about 371, 525, 547 and 540) look regular, but four numbers cannot tell you the fifth. Bitcoin now trades through funds and on far larger markets than in 2013, and what drove a past cycle may not repeat.

So this article does not say when the next high comes, or whether the 2026 low was the bottom. Four cycles cannot answer either question.

History shows what happened, not what will happen. A pattern seen three or four times is not a schedule.

What this means for a miner planning power money

A miner who keeps the bitcoin they mine pays power from cash while they wait. History gives one useful fact for that plan: the waits were long. After the high of December 2017, the price first closed a month above it again in December 2020, three years later. After the high of November 2021 it took until March 2024, 28 months (Binance monthly closes).

For one to two years of power money, that history is a warning, not a comfort. Past falls lasted about a year, and the climb back took longer. If you plan to keep mined bitcoin, budget power from cash for the whole term you choose, and assume the price may stay low for all of it.

A seven-year plan would have covered a full cycle in the past, but it meets other limits: the halving around April 2028, machine age and rising difficulty. Over seven years those weigh more than any price pattern.

Compare paying power from cash with selling mined bitcoin, on real past months, in the sell-or-keep calculator. For what a bear market does to a machine’s monthly output, see mining in a bear market.

Honest counterpoints

  • Machines age. Newer, more efficient models arrive every year. At today’s hashprice, machines at 20 to 25 J/TH are already being switched off.
  • Difficulty keeps rising. It rose about 5.5% in September and about 11% in October 2026, and reached 148.36T after the adjustment of 29 October. More difficulty means less bitcoin per machine each month.
  • The halving cuts output. Around April 2028 the reward falls to 1.5625 BTC. Fees have been under 1% of block rewards for about 15 months and do not fill that gap at today’s level.
  • Money is tied up. Cash paid for power is cash you cannot use elsewhere, and bitcoin you keep can fall further.
  • The host is a risk. Money paid ahead is only as safe as the company holding it. Check who signs the contract and what happens to your balance if you leave.
  • Large miners sold. MARA sold about 23,093 BTC in the first half of 2026. Keeping through a fall is a choice, not what every miner does.

Paying power upfront at Segments

If you choose to pay power from cash for a set term, you can pay Segments hosting 12 or 24 months upfront: 5% off for 12 months, 8% off for 24 months. The rate stays fixed for the term. You are billed on the energy actually used, drawn from the prepaid balance, and unused credit is refunded when you leave. See hosting paid upfront.

Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. This article is education, not investment advice. Segments sells bitcoin mining hosting.

Questions

Does a halving cause a bull market?
After each of the last four halvings the price reached a cycle high, about 371 to 547 days later. Four cycles are too few to call that a rule, and each rise was smaller than the one before.
When will the next Bitcoin high be?
Nobody can say. Past cycles give a range of days, but there are only a few of them, and nothing in Bitcoin’s code sets a price.
How far has Bitcoin fallen in past bear markets?
−87.0% in 2013–15, −84.3% in 2017–18 and −77.6% in 2021–22. In 2026 it fell about half, from about $126,000 in October 2025 to about $59,000 at the end of June.
Should a miner keep or sell mined bitcoin?
That is your choice. Keeping it means paying power from cash, possibly through more than a year of low prices. The sell-or-keep calculator shows both ways on real past months.

Sources

  1. Where are we in the crypto cycle? · Digital Surge, June 2026
  2. Will Bitcoin break the trend of diminishing returns this cycle? · LookIntoBitcoin
  3. Luxor Hashrate Lookback Series: June 2026 · Hashrate Index
  4. Bitcoin halving countdown · CoinWarz
  5. Bitcoin difficulty adjustments · mempool.space, 2026-10-29
  6. Is the Antminer S23 worth buying in 2026? · OneMiners
  7. MARA sells 23,093 bitcoin in H1 2026 · Crypto Briefing
  8. BTCUSDT daily closes · Binance, 2026-11-02

Segments research team · Mining operations, hosting and hardware specialists at Segments in Dubai

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