Bitcoin cycles and the 2028 halving: what history does and does not tell a miner

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Four cycles side by side

About every four years a halving cuts the new bitcoin paid per block in half. The next one is at block 1,050,000, estimated around April 2028, when the reward goes from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC. What that does to a machine’s income is in the 2028 halving article. Here we look only at what the price did around past halvings.

The 2025 high was about $126,000 on 6 October 2025. In 2026 the price fell to about $59,000 at the end of June (Luxor) and closed October 2026 at $77,582 (Binance). In the three earlier cycles, the fall from peak to bottom took about 382 days on average.

Each rise has been smaller

The clearest pattern across the three full cycles is not the timing. It is the shrinking size. From the bottom to the next high the price rose about 122 times, then about 22 times, then about 8 times. The falls also got shallower: −87%, −84%, −78%, and about −52% so far this time.

One common reading is that a larger market needs more money to move. Whatever the reason, the old multiples are not a guide to the next one.

Few data points, and no date

Three full cycles is a very small sample. The days from halving to high (about 371, 525, 547 and 540) look regular, but four numbers cannot tell you the fifth. Bitcoin now trades through funds and on far larger markets than in 2013, and what drove a past cycle may not repeat.

So this article does not say when the next high comes, or whether the 2026 low was the bottom. Four cycles cannot answer either question.

History shows what happened, not what will happen. A pattern seen three or four times is not a schedule.

What this means for a miner planning power money

A miner who keeps the bitcoin they mine pays power from cash while they wait. History gives one useful fact for that plan: the waits were long. After the high of December 2017, the price first closed a month above it again in December 2020, three years later. After the high of November 2021 it took until March 2024, 28 months (Binance monthly closes).

For one to two years of power money, that history is a warning, not a comfort. Past falls lasted about a year, and the climb back took longer. If you plan to keep mined bitcoin, budget power from cash for the whole term you choose, and assume the price may stay low for all of it.

A seven-year plan would have covered a full cycle in the past, but it meets other limits: the halving around April 2028, machine age and rising difficulty. Over seven years those weigh more than any price pattern.

Compare paying power from cash with selling mined bitcoin, on real past months, in the sell-or-keep calculator. For what a bear market does to a machine’s monthly output, see mining in a bear market.

Honest counterpoints

• Machines age. Newer, more efficient models arrive every year. At today’s hashprice, machines at 20 to 25 J/TH are already being switched off.
• Difficulty keeps rising. It rose about 5.5% in September and about 11% in October 2026, and reached 148.36T after the adjustment of 29 October. More difficulty means less bitcoin per machine each month.
• The halving cuts output. Around April 2028 the reward falls to 1.5625 BTC. Fees have been under 1% of block rewards for about 15 months and do not fill that gap at today’s level.
• Money is tied up. Cash paid for power is cash you cannot use elsewhere, and bitcoin you keep can fall further.
• The host is a risk. Money paid ahead is only as safe as the company holding it. Check who signs the contract and what happens to your balance if you leave.
• Large miners sold. MARA sold about 23,093 BTC in the first half of 2026. Keeping through a fall is a choice, not what every miner does.

Paying power upfront at Segments

If you choose to pay power from cash for a set term, you can pay Segments hosting 12 or 24 months upfront: 5% off for 12 months, 8% off for 24 months. The rate stays fixed for the term. You are billed on the energy actually used, drawn from the prepaid balance, and unused credit is refunded when you leave. See hosting paid upfront.

Virtual assets may lose their value in full or in part and are subject to extreme volatility. This article is education, not investment advice. Segments sells bitcoin mining hosting.