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What the halving is
Every 210,000 blocks, about four years, Bitcoin’s code halves the new coins paid to the miner who finds a block. The last halving, in April 2024, took it from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The next is at block 1,050,000. On 9 October 2026 the chain was at block 970,642, about 551 days away at ten minutes a block, which puts it around mid-April 2028.
What it does to mining revenue
Miners earn the block subsidy plus transaction fees. In October 2026 blocks paid 3.13 to 3.16 BTC, so fees added only about 1%. When the subsidy halves, revenue per terahash roughly halves too, on the day, unless the Bitcoin price or difficulty moves to offset it.
- The Bitcoin price has historically been the bigger variable over the following years, in both directions.
- Difficulty can fall if less efficient machines switch off, which raises everyone else’s share.
- Power cost does not change. That is why the halving squeezes inefficient machines hardest: their electricity was already most of their revenue.
A worked example
| Antminer S23 Hyd 580 TH/s at 5.8¢/kWh | Today (Oct 2026) | After the halving, same price and difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue a day | $22.62 | $11.31 |
| Power a day | $7.67 | $7.67 |
| Net a day | $14.95 | $3.64 |
| Lowest Bitcoin price that covers power | ≈ $28,000 | ≈ $56,000 |
The rule this gives you: the Bitcoin price a machine needs to cover its power doubles at the halving. Choose machines whose doubled price still sits well below the price you expect, and power cheap enough to keep it there. Efficiency (J/TH) and electricity price are the two numbers that decide it; compare them on the Antminer S23 and S21 pages.
Count it in the payback
A payback worked out at today’s revenue overstates how fast a machine repays after April 2028. Work it out day by day with the scheduled reward change included, so a machine bought now is judged on both halves of its life.
This explains a scheduled change in Bitcoin’s rules; it is not a price forecast. Mining income depends on the Bitcoin price, difficulty and uptime and is not guaranteed.
Ερωτήσεις
- When is the next Bitcoin halving?
- At block 1,050,000, expected around mid-April 2028. On 9 October 2026 it was about 551 days away; the exact date depends on how fast blocks are found.
- What is the block reward after the 2028 halving?
- 1.5625 BTC per block, down from 3.125 BTC, plus transaction fees.
- Should I buy a miner before the halving?
- Only one that stays profitable at about half today’s revenue per terahash at your power price. The Bitcoin price a machine needs to cover its power roughly doubles at the halving, so efficient machines on cheap power are the ones that keep earning.
- Does the halving make mining unprofitable?
- Not for efficient machines on cheap power; it squeezes the least efficient ones most, because their power cost stays the same while revenue halves. Difficulty and the Bitcoin price can offset part or all of it.